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An Artificial Intelligence Value at Risk Approach: Metrics and Models

Alvarez, Luis Enriquez

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence risks are multidimensional in nature, as the same risk scenarios may have legal, operational, and financial risk dimensions. With the emergence of new AI regulations, the state of the art of artificial intelligence risk management seems to be highly immature due to upcoming AI regulations. Despite the appearance of several methodologies and generic criteria, it is rare to find guidelines with real implementation value, considering that the most important issue is customizing artificial intelligence risk metrics and risk models for specific AI risk scenarios. Furthermore, the financial departments, legal departments and Government Risk Compliance teams seem to remain unaware of many technical aspects of AI systems, in which data scientists and AI engineers emerge as the most appropriate implementers. It is crucial to decompose the problem of artificial intelligence risk in several dimensions: data protection, fairness, accuracy, robustness, and information security. Consequently, the main task is developing adequate metrics and risk models that manage to reduce uncertainty for decision-making in order to take informed decisions concerning the risk management of AI systems. The purpose of this paper is to orientate AI stakeholders about the depths of AI risk management. Although it is not extremely technical, it requires a basic knowledge of risk management, quantifying uncertainty, the FAIR model, machine learning, large language models and AI context engineering. The examples presented pretend to be very basic and understandable, providing simple ideas that can be developed regarding specific AI customized environments. There are many issues to solve in AI risk management, and this paper will present a holistic overview of the inter-dependencies of AI risks, and how to model them together, within risk scenarios.


SafeAgent: Safeguarding LLM Agents via an Automated Risk Simulator

Zhou, Xueyang, Wang, Weidong, Lu, Lin, Shi, Jiawen, Tie, Guiyao, Xu, Yongtian, Chen, Lixing, Zhou, Pan, Gong, Neil Zhenqiang, Sun, Lichao

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Model (LLM)-based agents are increasingly deployed in real-world applications such as "digital assistants, autonomous customer service, and decision-support systems", where their ability to "interact in multi-turn, tool-augmented environments" makes them indispensable. However, ensuring the safety of these agents remains a significant challenge due to the diverse and complex risks arising from dynamic user interactions, external tool usage, and the potential for unintended harmful behaviors. To address this critical issue, we propose AutoSafe, the first framework that systematically enhances agent safety through fully automated synthetic data generation. Concretely, 1) we introduce an open and extensible threat model, OTS, which formalizes how unsafe behaviors emerge from the interplay of user instructions, interaction contexts, and agent actions. This enables precise modeling of safety risks across diverse scenarios. 2) we develop a fully automated data generation pipeline that simulates unsafe user behaviors, applies self-reflective reasoning to generate safe responses, and constructs a large-scale, diverse, and high-quality safety training dataset-eliminating the need for hazardous real-world data collection. To evaluate the effectiveness of our framework, we design comprehensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world safety benchmarks. Results demonstrate that AutoSafe boosts safety scores by 45% on average and achieves a 28.91% improvement on real-world tasks, validating the generalization ability of our learned safety strategies. These results highlight the practical advancement and scalability of AutoSafe in building safer LLM-based agents for real-world deployment. We have released the project page at https://auto-safe.github.io/.


Adapting Probabilistic Risk Assessment for AI

Wisakanto, Anna Katariina, Rogero, Joe, Casheekar, Avyay M., Mallah, Richard

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern general-purpose artificial intelligence (AI) systems present an urgent risk management challenge, as their rapidly evolving capabilities and potential for catastrophic harm outpace our ability to reliably assess their risks. Current methods often rely on selective testing and undocumented assumptions about risk priorities, frequently failing to make a serious attempt at assessing the set of pathways through which AI systems pose direct or indirect risks to society and the biosphere. This paper introduces the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for AI framework, adapting established PRA techniques from high-reliability industries (e.g., nuclear power, aerospace) for the new challenges of advanced AI. The framework guides assessors in identifying potential risks, estimating likelihood and severity bands, and explicitly documenting evidence, underlying assumptions, and analyses at appropriate granularities. The framework's implementation tool synthesizes the results into a risk report card with aggregated risk estimates from all assessed risks. It introduces three methodological advances: (1) Aspect-oriented hazard analysis provides systematic hazard coverage guided by a first-principles taxonomy of AI system aspects (e.g. capabilities, domain knowledge, affordances); (2) Risk pathway modeling analyzes causal chains from system aspects to societal impacts using bidirectional analysis and incorporating prospective techniques; and (3) Uncertainty management employs scenario decomposition, reference scales, and explicit tracing protocols to structure credible projections with novelty or limited data. Additionally, the framework harmonizes diverse assessment methods by integrating evidence into comparable, quantified absolute risk estimates for lifecycle decisions. We have implemented this as a workbook tool for AI developers, evaluators, and regulators.


Case-based Reasoning Augmented Large Language Model Framework for Decision Making in Realistic Safety-Critical Driving Scenarios

Gan, Wenbin, Dao, Minh-Son, Zettsu, Koji

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Driving in safety-critical scenarios requires quick, context-aware decision-making grounded in both situational understanding and experiential reasoning. Large Language Models (LLMs), with their powerful general-purpose reasoning capabilities, offer a promising foundation for such decision-making. However, their direct application to autonomous driving remains limited due to challenges in domain adaptation, contextual grounding, and the lack of experiential knowledge needed to make reliable and interpretable decisions in dynamic, high-risk environments. To address this gap, this paper presents a Case-Based Reasoning Augmented Large Language Model (CBR-LLM) framework for evasive maneuver decision-making in complex risk scenarios. Our approach integrates semantic scene understanding from dashcam video inputs with the retrieval of relevant past driving cases, enabling LLMs to generate maneuver recommendations that are both context-sensitive and human-aligned. Experiments across multiple open-source LLMs show that our framework improves decision accuracy, justification quality, and alignment with human expert behavior. Risk-aware prompting strategies further enhance performance across diverse risk types, while similarity-based case retrieval consistently outperforms random sampling in guiding in-context learning. Case studies further demonstrate the framework's robustness in challenging real-world conditions, underscoring its potential as an adaptive and trustworthy decision-support tool for intelligent driving systems.


REACT: Runtime-Enabled Active Collision-avoidance Technique for Autonomous Driving

Huang, Heye, Cheng, Hao, Zhou, Zhiyuan, Wang, Zijin, Liu, Qichao, Li, Xiaopeng

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Achieving rapid and effective active collision avoidance in dynamic interactive traffic remains a core challenge for autonomous driving. This paper proposes REACT (Runtime-Enabled Active Collision-avoidance Technique), a closed-loop framework that integrates risk assessment with active avoidance control. By leveraging energy transfer principles and human-vehicle-road interaction modeling, REACT dynamically quantifies runtime risk and constructs a continuous spatial risk field. The system incorporates physically grounded safety constraints such as directional risk and traffic rules to identify high-risk zones and generate feasible, interpretable avoidance behaviors. A hierarchical warning trigger strategy and lightweight system design enhance runtime efficiency while ensuring real-time responsiveness. Evaluations across four representative high-risk scenarios including car-following braking, cut-in, rear-approaching, and intersection conflict demonstrate REACT's capability to accurately identify critical risks and execute proactive avoidance. Its risk estimation aligns closely with human driver cognition (i.e., warning lead time < 0.4 s), achieving 100% safe avoidance with zero false alarms or missed detections. Furthermore, it exhibits superior real-time performance (< 50 ms latency), strong foresight, and generalization. The lightweight architecture achieves state-of-the-art accuracy, highlighting its potential for real-time deployment in safety-critical autonomous systems.


What Makes an Evaluation Useful? Common Pitfalls and Best Practices

Gekker, Gil, Segal, Meirav, Lahav, Dan, Nevo, Omer

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Following the rapid increase in Artificial Intelligence (AI) capabilities in recent years, the AI community has voiced concerns regarding possible safety risks. To support decision-making on the safe use and development of AI systems, there is a growing need for high-quality evaluations of dangerous model capabilities. While several attempts to provide such evaluations have been made, a clear definition of what constitutes a "good evaluation" has yet to be agreed upon. In this practitioners' perspective paper, we present a set of best practices for safety evaluations, drawing on prior work in model evaluation and illustrated through cybersecurity examples. We first discuss the steps of the initial thought process, which connects threat modeling to evaluation design. Then, we provide the characteristics and parameters that make an evaluation useful. Finally, we address additional considerations as we move from building specific evaluations to building a full and comprehensive evaluation suite.


Mapping AI Benchmark Data to Quantitative Risk Estimates Through Expert Elicitation

Murray, Malcolm, Papadatos, Henry, Quarks, Otter, Gimenez, Pierre-François, Campos, Simeon

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The literature and multiple experts point to many potential risks from large language models (LLMs), but there are still very few direct measurements of the actual harms posed. AI risk assessment has so far focused on measuring the models' capabilities, but the capabilities of models are only indicators of risk, not measures of risk. Better modeling and quantification of AI risk scenarios can help bridge this disconnect and link the capabilities of LLMs to tangible real-world harm. This paper makes an early contribution to this field by demonstrating how existing AI benchmarks can be used to facilitate the creation of risk estimates. We describe the results of a pilot study in which experts use information from Cybench, an AI benchmark, to generate probability estimates. We show that the methodology seems promising for this purpose, while noting improvements that can be made to further strengthen its application in quantitative AI risk assessment. Figure 1: The performance of LLM benchmarks directly informs the probability estimates generated through expert elicitation. For example, the expert is informed that an LLM can solve the task'Unbreakable' in Cybench and uses this information to increase the probability of success for a malware creation step by 5%.


The Unified Control Framework: Establishing a Common Foundation for Enterprise AI Governance, Risk Management and Regulatory Compliance

Eisenberg, Ian W., Gamboa, Lucía, Sherman, Eli

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid adoption of AI systems presents enterprises with a dual challenge: accelerating innovation while ensuring responsible governance. Current AI governance approaches suffer from fragmentation, with risk management frameworks that focus on isolated domains, regulations that vary across jurisdictions despite conceptual alignment, and high-level standards lacking concrete implementation guidance. This fragmentation increases governance costs and creates a false dichotomy between innovation and responsibility. We propose the Unified Control Framework (UCF): a comprehensive governance approach that integrates risk management and regulatory compliance through a unified set of controls. The UCF consists of three key components: (1) a comprehensive risk taxonomy synthesizing organizational and societal risks, (2) structured policy requirements derived from regulations, and (3) a parsimonious set of 42 controls that simultaneously address multiple risk scenarios and compliance requirements. We validate the UCF by mapping it to the Colorado AI Act, demonstrating how our approach enables efficient, adaptable governance that scales across regulations while providing concrete implementation guidance. The UCF reduces duplication of effort, ensures comprehensive coverage, and provides a foundation for automation, enabling organizations to achieve responsible AI governance without sacrificing innovation speed.


Is Safety Standard Same for Everyone? User-Specific Safety Evaluation of Large Language Models

In, Yeonjun, Kim, Wonjoong, Yoon, Kanghoon, Kim, Sungchul, Tanjim, Mehrab, Kim, Kibum, Park, Chanyoung

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As the use of large language model (LLM) agents continues to grow, their safety vulnerabilities have become increasingly evident. Extensive benchmarks evaluate various aspects of LLM safety by defining the safety relying heavily on general standards, overlooking user-specific standards. However, safety standards for LLM may vary based on a user-specific profiles rather than being universally consistent across all users. This raises a critical research question: Do LLM agents act safely when considering user-specific safety standards? Despite its importance for safe LLM use, no benchmark datasets currently exist to evaluate the user-specific safety of LLMs. To address this gap, we introduce U-SAFEBENCH, the first benchmark designed to assess user-specific aspect of LLM safety. Our evaluation of 18 widely used LLMs reveals current LLMs fail to act safely when considering user-specific safety standards, marking a new discovery in this field. To address this vulnerability, we propose a simple remedy based on chain-of-thought, demonstrating its effectiveness in improving user-specific safety. Our benchmark and code are available at https://github.com/yeonjun-in/U-SafeBench.


Enhancing healthcare infrastructure resilience through agent-based simulation methods

Carramiñana, David, Bernardos, Ana M., Besada, Juan A., Casar, José R.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Critical infrastructures face demanding challenges due to natural and human-generated threats, such as pandemics, workforce shortages or cyber-attacks, which might severely compromise service quality. To improve system resilience, decision-makers would need intelligent tools for quick and efficient resource allocation. This article explores an agent-based simulation model that intends to capture a part of the complexity of critical infrastructure systems, particularly considering the interdependencies of healthcare systems with information and telecommunication systems. Such a model enables to implement a simulation-based optimization approach in which the exposure of critical systems to risks is evaluated, while comparing the mitigation effects of multiple tactical and strategical decision alternatives to enhance their resilience. The proposed model is designed to be parameterizable, to enable adapting it to risk scenarios with different severity, and it facilitates the compilation of relevant performance indicators enabling monitoring at both agent level and system level. To validate the agent-based model, a literature-supported methodology has been used to perform cross-validation, sensitivity analysis and test the usefulness of the proposed model through a use case. The use case analyzes the impact of a concurrent pandemic and a cyber-attack on a hospital and compares different resiliency-enhancing countermeasures using contingency tables. Overall, the use case illustrates the feasibility and versatility of the proposed approach to enhance resiliency.